Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 84074.717473 88717.384242 93356.112131 98335.376449 103525.515990 108772.620854 114474.885148
2024-12-15 77096.126187 84258.258810 91611.417126 99714.553346 108382.968815 117367.533492 127373.073641
2024-12-22 70978.326085 79782.514110 89019.091354 99410.343725 110753.135147 122736.934669 136333.070299
2024-12-29 67508.529321 77666.431371 88514.503572 100926.120183 114696.981855 129470.894008 146481.956263
2025-01-05 64335.051835 75550.088166 87715.934222 101841.386310 117736.522812 135015.638988 155163.679907
2025-01-12 61107.118600 73125.198720 86350.101764 101911.673830 119647.307597 139156.334495 162161.626151
2025-01-19 58145.998794 70812.858004 84937.819331 101764.182738 121166.149586 142738.817971 168437.656794
2025-01-26 56701.858565 70139.052122 85300.129811 103557.481520 124825.488444 148695.520620 177383.060006
2025-02-02 55396.628823 69535.678302 85665.221609 105285.887056 128359.375457 154480.606844 186129.179199
2025-02-09 53688.013639 68362.709551 85283.827868 106069.840538 130738.020732 158897.470110 193281.211688
2025-02-16 51622.438863 66669.952473 84205.463055 105954.086172 131995.954369 161964.609760 198833.508780
2025-02-23 50050.738401 65506.398529 83697.028315 106461.268960 133946.077616 165812.514691 205288.711553
2025-03-02 48264.236164 64042.482880 82803.350254 106497.832977 135348.747482 169054.143782 211102.491803
2025-03-09 47250.334567 63497.829636 82999.104108 107836.925762 138314.351451 174166.734707 219178.864189
2025-03-16 45457.744156 61911.535211 81856.550003 107484.375328 139185.244563 176745.329701 224212.940391
2025-03-23 44731.213012 61641.755925 82318.591125 109091.675044 142441.471271 182201.371837 232735.323818
2025-03-30 43751.940684 61008.636621 82292.692664 110064.445148 144899.804972 186687.530219 240098.228076
2025-04-06 42413.080556 59864.109872 81580.290787 110138.944774 146215.903377 189764.351028 245742.863785
2025-04-13 41041.586996 58631.630793 80714.833911 109981.905680 147212.260159 192429.278385 250876.686764
2025-04-20 40656.731920 58680.492432 81478.120396 111890.279274 150804.843684 198311.133354 260004.124242
2025-04-27 40265.516727 58701.955243 82192.547733 113729.225291 154312.982471 204104.257756 269055.811569
2025-05-04 39469.031831 58152.603717 82141.686747 114563.196161 156534.471604 208295.926349 276133.762855
2025-05-11 38312.047535 57081.060385 81375.446700 114440.060949 157510.715773 210915.983816 281249.006331